Tyler Wahl gives the Badgers the edge

Pennsylvania vs. Wisconsin odds

Pennsylvania state He travels down the road to Madison to take a reel Wisconsin Team.

Penn State got things back on track last week, demolishing Indiana, 85-66, at home to go 3-3 in the Big Ten.

The Nittany Lions improved a lot in their second season under Micah Shrewsberry, but only had one real road win on the season. They also have some serious flaws on the glass and getting to the free throw line.

Wisconsin had a three-game slide that culminated in a 63-45 loss at Indiana over the weekend. The Badgers were 11-2 and had cracked into the top 25 before their losing streak, but now they are just looking for something to turn things around.

This thing might just be the return of Tyler Wahl, who is the team’s MVP and has missed the last three games. This would explain the losing streak for the Badgers.

Offensively, Penn State is one of the most unusual teams in college basketball.

He does an incredible job of taking care of the ball, as he is the number one team in the country in turnover allowed. But she has the fourth-lowest offensive rebound percentage and the second-lowest free throw rate in the entire country.

This means that the Nittany Lions offense is incredibly dependent on not only getting high-quality shots, but also making them. The Nittany Lions’ shot selection is pretty appalling, ranking 324th, per Shot quality.

However, they are a top 10 lead shot band, but usually when a band doesn’t get quality shots, they don’t get second chance shots. Plus, the Nittany Lions don’t make it to the line, so they fall back.

Image via snapshot quality

Despite this, Penn State has one of the best defenses in the Big Ten. As you can see above, she does an amazing job of not only forcing teams into hard shots, but also defending the edge at an incredibly high rate.

The one area the Nittany Lions tend to struggle defensively is in defense of the three-point line. Penn State allows 33.4% from behind the arc (163rd in the country, per KenPom), ranks 219th in PPP allowed on 3-pointers catch-and-shoot and 196th in PPP allowed on 3-pointers off-the-dribble .

Wisconsin tends to shoot a lot of triple points, so this is an area where Nittany Lions can be exploited.

It’s pretty clear for Wisconsin that Wahl’s lack of presence is a major factor, considering he’s used on 31.1% of its possessions (18th highest in the NCAA, per KenPom) and takes 28% of his snaps when he’s on the floor.

Wahl is clearly a major factor in why Wisconsin has been 0-3 in their last three games, but he’s not the premier 3-point shooter for the Badgers.

The Badgers offense is designed to play inside out, as it has the second highest rebounding frequency in the country. However, 41.2% of their shots come from behind the three-point line.

Against Indiana on Saturday, Wisconsin went 5-of-24 from behind the arc when usually shooting over 36% from 3.

Because Penn State is so average on 3-point line defense, the Badgers should be able to get plenty of open looks. In the end, it will just depend on whether they can film their footage.

Just like Penn State, the Badgers rarely turn the ball over (7th in turnover allowed), don’t hit the offensive boards (347th in offensive rebound percentage) and rarely reach the free throw line (324th in free space throwing rate).

They also don’t usually get great looks, ranking 234th in pick picks, per Shot quality.

Defensively, Wisconsin has been very good, and he’s a staple on Greg Guard’s teams. The Badgers are 24th in modified defensive efficiency, 26th in forcing teams to pick bad throws and 51st in PPP allowed at the rim.

They are also a top 50 defensive rebounding team, so Penn State shouldn’t have too many second chance chances.

Pennsylvania vs Wisconsin betting pick

Wahl’s comeback would be massive for Wisconsin, considering he’s the best player in it and the one who takes the most shots.

Penn State’s offense is straightforward because of its incline. The fear for Nittany Lions is that if you don’t get a quality skin, you won’t get second chance chances. And if you don’t get to the free throw line, what happens when all of a sudden the shots don’t go in?

While Penn State’s defense has been elite this season, it has been pretty mediocre defending the three-point line, which is where Wisconsin takes a good number of shots.

So, I like the value on Badgers at home at -1.5 (Fandel), especially with Penn State playing its fourth true road game of the season.

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