Taiwan: A war game simulation suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will fail at great cost to the US, Chinese, and Taiwanese militaries.



CNN

Chinese invasion Taiwan In the year 2026, thousands of casualties will result in the ranks of the Chinese, American, Taiwanese, and Japanese forces, and it is unlikely that this will result in a victory for Beijing, according to a prominent independent think tank in Washington, which conducted a war game simulation of a possible conflict. This preoccupies the minds of military and political leaders in Asia and Washington.

A war on Taiwan would leave the victorious American army as crippled as the Chinese forces it defeated.

At the end of the conflict, at least two American aircraft carriers will lie at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, and China’s modern navy, the largest in the world, will be in “a mess.”

These are among the conclusions reached by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), after running what it claims is one of the most comprehensive War game simulation It was ever made about a possible dispute over Taiwan, the democratically ruled island of 24 million people that the Chinese Communist Party claims is part of its sovereign territory even though it never controlled it.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has refused to rule out the use of military force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

CNN reviewed an advance copy of the report — titled “First Battle in the Next War” — on more than two dozen war scenarios run by CSIS, which said the project was necessary because past government and private war simulations were too narrow or too vague to give the public and policymakers a real look. On how the conflict occurred across the Taiwan Strait.

“There is no non-secret war game that looks at the conflict between the United States and China,” said Marc Cancian, one of the three project leaders and a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Among unranked games, it is usually only played once or twice.”

CSIS ran this war game 24 times to answer two basic questions: Will the invasion succeed and at what cost?

The report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that the possible answers to these two questions are “no” and overwhelming.

The United States and Japan are losing dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service personnel. The report said that such losses will damage the global standing of the United States for many years. In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants. About 3,200 American soldiers have been killed in three weeks of fighting, nearly half of what the United States has lost in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

China is also suffering badly. Its navy is in disarray, its amphibious core is broken, and its tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war. The report estimated that China would suffer about 10,000 soldiers killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 large ships.

The scenarios paint a bleak future for Taiwan, even if the Chinese invasion is unsuccessful.

“While unbroken, the Taiwanese military is badly degraded and left to fend for a ruined economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” the report said. The report said that the island’s army would suffer about 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its navy would be sunk.

The report found that Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships while the US military bases on its soil are exposed to a Chinese attack.

But CSIS said it did not want its report to suggest a war on Taiwan was “inevitable or even probable”.

“The Chinese leadership may adopt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray area pressure or economic coercion against Taiwan,” she said.

Dan Grazier, a senior fellow on defense policy at the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), finds an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan highly unlikely. Grazier told CNN that such a military operation would immediately disrupt imports and exports on which the Chinese economy depends for its survival, and that cutting off this trade threatens to collapse the Chinese economy in a short time. China relies on food and fuel imports to drive its economic engine, Grazier said, and they have no room to maneuver.

“The Chinese will do everything they can in my judgment to avoid a military conflict with anybody,” Grazier said. To challenge the United States for global domination, they will use industrial and economic power instead of military power.

But Pentagon leaders have called China a “footprint threat” to America, and last year Chinese Military Strength Report With a congressional mandate, he said, “The PLA has increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait, to include increasing flights to Taiwan’s purported Air Defense Identification Zone and conducting exercises focused on the potential capture of one of Taiwan’s remote islands.”

In August, then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island led to a large-scale display of military force by the People’s Liberation Army, which included sending missiles over the island as well as into the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

Since then, Beijing has ratcheted up aggressive military pressure tactics on the island, sending fighter jets across the middle line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water separating Taiwan and China into the island’s Air Defense Determination Zone – an airspace buffer zone commonly referred to as the . to ADIZ.

Speaking of Taiwan at the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping won plaudits when he said China would “strive for peaceful reunification” — but then gave a grim warning, saying “we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we We reserve the option to take all necessary action.”

The Biden administration has been steadfast in its support for the island as laid out in the Taiwan Relations Act, which said Washington would provide the island with the means to defend itself without obligating US forces to do so.

The recently signed National Defense Authorization Act commits the United States to a program to modernize Taiwan’s military and provides $10 billion in security assistance over five years, a strong sign of longstanding bipartisan support for the island.

However, Biden has said more than once that the US military will defend Taiwan if the Chinese military launches an invasion, even as the Pentagon insists there is no change in Washington’s “one China” policy.

Under the “One China” policy, the United States recognizes China’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never formally recognized Beijing’s claim to the self-ruled island.

“Wars happen even when objective analysis indicates that the attacker may not be successful,” Cancian said.

The report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that the US forces to prevent China from taking control of Taiwan in the end, there were four constants that emerged among the 24 iterations of the war game:

Taiwanese ground forces should be able to contain the Chinese beachheads; The United States should be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations; The United States must have long-range anti-ship missiles to strike the People’s Liberation Army Navy from afar and “collectively”; And the United States needs to fully arm Taiwan before shooting starts and jump into any conflict with its forces immediately.

“There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan,” the report said, referring to how U.S. and Western aid has slowly flowed into Ukraine after the start of Russia’s invasion of its neighbor and the lack of U.S. or NATO forces actively fighting against Russia.

“Once a war begins, it is impossible to send any troops or supplies to Taiwan, so the situation is very different from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” Kansian said. “No matter what the Taiwanese will have in the war, they must have it when the war begins.”

The think tank said Washington would need to start acting soon if it was to meet some of CSIS’ recommendations for success in the Taiwan dispute.

These include fortifying US bases in Japan and Guam against Chinese missile attacks; transferring its navy to smaller, more survivable ships; prioritizing submarines; prioritizing sustainable bomber forces over combat forces; But producing fighters is cheaper; And he pushed Taiwan toward a similar strategy, arming itself with simpler weapons platforms rather than expensive ships that are unlikely to survive a Chinese first strike.

The CSIS report said that these policies would make it less costly for the US military to win, but losses would still be high.

“The United States may win a Pyrrhic victory, and in the long run will suffer more from the ‘defeated’ Chinese.”

“Victory is not everything,” the report said.

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