Colleges overreacting early: Five observations from the first two weeks of the 2022-23 season

We’re two weeks away and it’s changing to college basketball season which means we can officially collect it some Information from the results and data we have seen so far and collected. Whether or not it’s all sticky and didactic is likely (sure!) remains to be determined, but opinions nonetheless form based on what we know so far and what we think we know so far. So why not put pen to paper and indulge in some overreactions in a small sample? (So ​​we can, inevitably, look back on this in a few months and see how right we got.)

Most teams have played four, maybe five games, so of course a lot is subject to change. And teams can change and develop often over the course of a season as injured players return, new teams get to know themselves and young players develop. But . . . Sometimes the results of the start of the season are more predictive than we give credence to. And if they are. . . Well, this will be a problem for some teams (and a boon for some others).

Let’s jump right in and start with some dips. You can’t spell most of the word “low” without a “LouisvilleSo the Cardinals are ahead.

Lousy Louisville is the worst team in the ACC

It’s been pretty bad for Louisville this season, and I think as long as we’re overreacting early in the season, one can reasonably cut the “in the ACC” out of that expectation and just deal with it. Louisville is the worst team. Kenny Payne’s tenure with the Cardinals got off to a miserable start. Losing five-star DJ Wagner was just a taste of how things are going on the field. with 80-54 blowout loss to No. 9 Arkansas At the Maui Invitational on Monday, the Cardinals fell to 0-4 on the season, their worst start in over eight decades (!!).

On Tuesday things got worse. Louisville posted its lowest offensive production in 74 years in a 70-38 loss to No. 21 Texas Tech.

There are countless reasons why the Cardinals are not a good basketball team right now, but No. 1 on the list right now is their inability to handle the ball. Louisville ranks last among all major conference programs in assists-to-turnover ratio now with 72 turnovers and 31 assists on the season after an amazing 22 turnovers and four assists against Arkansas.

And then what for the 0-5 Cardinals? The schedule does not serve them. Louisville plays into the seventh-place game at the Maui Invitational on Wednesday against Cincinnati and then embarks on this tough schedule:

November 29 No. 23 Maryland
Dec 4 Miami
December 10th in Florida
December 14th Western Kentucky
December 17th Florida A&M
December 20th Lipscomb
December 22nd in North Carolina
December 31st at No. 15 Kentucky

Louisville started the 1940-41 season with 11 straight losses and has a distinct possibility of being 0-10 this season heading into its home game against the Rattlers. But Payne’s debut season ended with an A.J Pine Bean Start the Cardinals.

Villanova just isn’t the same without Jay Wright

Put this in a category Well, yeah, duh, But Villanova, as it turns out, doesn’t seem to have the same buzz he’s had under Hall of Fame head coach Jay Wright that he’s been doing so far under his replacement, Kyle Neptune. The Wildcats are 2-2 on the season with losses temple and No. 12 Michigan State. Their style remains the same – slow as ever with a slow pace to grind teams – but their results so far have been mixed.

The absence of five-star freshman Cam Whitmore and veteran star Justin Moore, both with injuries, is significant and part of the context for his slow start. But Nova looks like a layer under number 10 Creighton and number 20 Okun in early time. We’ll see if things change heading into conference play, but it may just be a down year like Wildcats junk in a new era but this year could bring with it some growing pains that the program hasn’t had to deal with in recent years.

The Big 12 is a big dog (again)

There was cause for optimism in the preseason about the SEC and the potential for the Big Ten to topple the Big 12 as the conference’s top college hoops. But so far, that optimism has been blunted with a big stick with the Top 12 already looking as though it might also double as the best college basketball. Texas 4-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP Top 25 and No. 1 in the AP Top 25. 1 in CBS Sports Top 25 and 1 In the wake of bloating and then not. 2 Gonzaga. Number 3 Kansas It is 4-0 after defeating No. 8 duke. Both are No. 7 Baylor and No. 21 Texas TechEach one, though faltered, looks as good or maybe even better than advertised.

Meanwhile at the SEC, Big Dog #15 Kentucky He looked tough and number 22 Tennessee Fell flat against heat and cold Coloradoand in the Big Ten, No. 11 IndianaNo. 12 Michigan StateNo. 16 IllinoisNo. 23 Maryland and No. 25 YesThey’ve all been impressive so far but no team or team has been quite as good as the group The Big 12 finished at the top.

Virginia It is ACC class

Preparation number 1 North Carolina It did nothing to technically lose its rating — it won each of its four matches on the season — but it certainly did nothing to validate that rating either. against three teams ranked outside the top 80 KenPom.comUNC has a scoring margin of 54th nationally with wins closer than it should have been against both UNC Wilmington and Gardner Webb.

Meanwhile, Virginia’s preseason hype spilled over into early season success with one of the most impressive opening weeks highlighted by wins in Vegas last week over both Baylor and Illinois. With Duke not yet at full strength and UNC’s leadership wiggling early, the Cavaliers are looking like contenders again under Tony Bennett and appearing to be ACC class until further notice.

The Big Ten exceeded its lofty expectations

There were only three Big Ten teams ranked in the AP preseason top 25—Indiana, Michigan and Illinois, which was below the Big 12 and the SEC — but a whopping six teams from the conference landed inside the latest AP Top 25 rankings on Monday. That’s more than any other major conference. Its rise was fueled by strong early-season performances from Michigan State, Maryland, Bordeaux and Iowa, all unranked in the preseason but combined 15-1 to start the season with wins over Kentucky and Villanova (to the state of Michigan), Saint Louis And the Miami (to Maryland), Market (to Bordeaux) and Seton Hall (to Iowa).

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